The key race: Airbus printed 72 in September and still needs a record fourth quarter for around 870
Winning in large commercial aircraft still means turning a decade-long backlog into certified, delivered jets this year. Airbus's public orders-and-deliveries page, checked 11 October, now shows September as the latest official month: 72 aircraft to 37 customers and 547 year to date toward an around-870 target. Gross orders that month were 17. Aerospace Global News, working from the 8 October bulletin, put net orders at 1,105 after 69 year-to-date cancellations, with 323 still needed in the fourth quarter, about 108 a month, and a 9,310-aircraft backlog.
Spain's strike path remains closed after the 30 September-1 October workforce vote already on the company record. The remaining industrial subtractor is still the A321 stringer coating deviation Airbus confirmed in late September, understood to affect more than 500 aircraft including about 250 still in the supply chain. A350F prototype MSN700 flew on 29 September; that campaign does not replace A320-family rework as the 2026 delivery risk.
Who's ahead: Airbus still leads the official scoreboard, Avolon signed 250 jets pending a Bohai vote, and Biman firmed 10 Airbus aircraft
Airbus still leads on deliveries from the only OEM that has posted September. Boeing's last cited official monthly print remains 51 in August and 418 year to date; this run found no matching September table on Boeing's commercial orders-and-deliveries page, which returned marketing copy rather than a monthly workbook. Demand is not the constraint. On 9 October Avolon announced firm orders for 250 new-technology aircraft: 140 737 MAX jets from Boeing and 110 from Airbus (75 A320neo family and 35 A330-900), plus options for 100 more Airbus aircraft. Avolon said the orders remain subject only to approval by shareholders of Bohai Leasing, its 70 percent owner, expected before the end of October. Airbus's same-day release called the 110-jet package a firm order and said it takes Avolon's A330-900 total to 114 and its A320 Family total to some 650. Boeing had not posted a matching 2026 Avolon press release as of 11 October.
On 7 October Biman Bangladesh Airlines signed a firm Airbus order for four A350-900s and six A321neos. Airbus did not state delivery years or contract value. Ethiopian's 30 September 777-8F and 777F close and Turkish Airlines' 100 737-8s plus 50 MAX options remain the largest Boeing firmings already on the company record. The 737-10 still has no FAA type certificate after the 2 October CARB finding and the 3 October SAIB already absorbed on Boeing's timeline.
What decides it: 323 jets in Q4, A321 rework, a still-unpublished Boeing September print, and a MAX 10 certificate that is still unset
With Spain approved, the near-term test of around 870 is whether A321 coating rework and engine shortages still force jets later into the quarter, and whether Airbus can average about 108 deliveries a month through December. Official year to date is now 547, not 475. Aerospace Global News said the A320 family accounted for 59 of September's 72 deliveries, including 37 A321neos, plus eight A220s, two A330neos and three A350-900s. A CGT merits hearing is still set for 4 November, after the final labor text and BOE publication.
On the 777-9, GE Aerospace's GE9X mid-seal work and ETOPS authorization still point to 2027 entry into service and a first Lufthansa delivery. Boeing is producing 737 MAX jets at 47 a month but is not yet stable there; the move to 52 still waits on that stability plus Everett North Line certification. The MAX 10 question remains whether the FAA follows the 2 October CARB finding with a type certificate, not whether the go-around software is a safety-of-flight block.
The money and the rules: Avolon's 250-jet book is still a shareholder vote, Vietnam is still unsigned, and dual-listed members remain other races
The order book is still a production story. Avolon's 9 October close is the sector's largest lessor firming of the fortnight, but it is not booked until Bohai's shareholders vote, a condition Airbus's release does not mention. Biman's 10-jet Airbus order sits beside 25 Boeing aircraft already in that carrier's pipeline; Airbus stated no slots. Airbus's Vietnam haul from mid-September is still unsigned: a Vietnam Airlines memorandum for five A350-900s and a Vietravel letter of intent for 20 A220s and 30 A321-family jets. On cargo rules, the FAA's 17 September waiver of 2028 airplane CO2 certification limits so Boeing can sell another 35 777F freighters after 1 January 2028 still covers about three years while the 777-8F is not expected until around 2029. The FAA's proposed replacement of the US overland supersonic ban with a 0.11 psf overpressure standard remains a proposal, with comments closed 17 August and a final rule still pointed at mid-2027.
Dual-listed eVTOL members Joby, Archer, BETA and Eve Air Mobility remain on the eVTOL page for paying-service and certification milestones, including BETA's 7 October Utah eIPP medical-cargo wrap and Joby's Tampa Aerosonic verdict, which do not move the airliner scoreboard. Heart Aerospace's ES-36 unveiling and Boom's Superpower launch-customer change stay on those company records. Leeham's 7 October Forslund interview restates the already-announced ES-36 path; it is not a new first-flight date. Hermeus remains a high-Mach and defense member. Boeing's PAC-3 seeker UCA, JIATF laser pilot, F/A-XX and F-15EX Lot 7 are defense events. OpenAI, Huawei, AST SpaceMobile, Eutelsat OneWeb and Boston Dynamics arrived on the industry queue and are not civilian-airliner members. None of those tracks moves the 2026 Airbus-Boeing delivery scoreboard.
What to watch through 2027
At Airbus, watch whether October-December can carry 323 aircraft against around 870; watch A321 coating rework versus the A320 family path to about 70-75 a month by end-2027; watch A350F's nine-month campaign and second-half-2027 first delivery; watch whether Avolon's 110 jets and Biman's 10 are posted after the Bohai vote and with dated slots; and watch publication of the ratified Spain labor text before the 4 November CGT hearing. The 1 October board-chair handover to Amparo Moraleda is already on the Airbus company record. At Boeing, watch whether the FAA issues a 737-10 type certificate after the 2 October CARB finding; watch whether an official September print lands before the 27 October results; watch whether rate 47 actually stabilizes before any talk of 52; watch the 777-9 hold 2027 certification and a first Lufthansa delivery; and watch whether Avolon's 140 MAX jets clear Bohai and appear in a later orders-and-deliveries table.
At COMAC, watch the first two Air Cambodia C909s in November and the 15 December service start, and whether 2026 C919 output can still approach IBA's 28 or the airlines' 33 after a 10-jet count through mid-September with no later official print found this run. Beyond the duopoly, watch Boom's Symphony first fire around November and the 31 December Greensboro 500-employee test, Heart's ES-36 pre-production build toward a second-half-2028 first flight, and Safran's RISE fan-module ground tests into early 2027. The through-line is unchanged: factories, unions, and certification paperwork, not a new airframe, decide how much of this decade's backlog actually flies.
