METR says Anthropic's well-specified progress is about twice as fast

METR said on Nov. 5 that, as of October 2026, Anthropic is likely improving model capabilities on well-specified tasks at about twice the March 2024 to October 2025 rate, and that a true rate closer to 1.3x or 3x would not be surprising. Anthropic's AECI scores have grown an estimated 1.9 times faster since October 2025, with a 95 percent confidence interval of 1.5x to 2.8x, and METR guessed that perhaps about 80 percent of the current acceleration comes from AI use, with substantial uncertainty. Anthropic redacted a majority of the evidence METR found most informative, and The Verge reported that co-founder Sam McCandlish said Anthropic plans to publish its own analysis.