The key race: volume is table stakes; winning now means the next chemistry and a cell that can clear US tax rules
BloombergNEF still has the world adding 158 GW and 459 GWh of non-pumped-hydro storage in 2026, up 41 percent from the 112 GW and 307 GWh installed in 2025, the first year annual additions crossed 100 GW. That compounding is no longer the interesting contest. SNE Research counted 461.3 GWh of energy-storage cell shipments in the first half of 2026, up 71 percent year over year, with non-China markets taking 56.1 percent of the total for the first time. CATL shipped 125.0 GWh of those cells and held 27.1 percent share. The fight that decides who captures the next decade is whether lithium iron phosphate stays the default, or whether sodium-ion, long-duration non-lithium systems, and FEOC-compliant Western cells split the market that LFP just won.
China's September 1, 2026 consumption tax is the policy that turned that chemistry race into an industrial-policy contest. Lithium-ion cells, packs, and clusters now pay 2 percent, rising to the statutory 4 percent on September 1, 2027, after an 11-year exemption. Sodium-ion, solid-state, and fuel cells stay exempt through the end of 2028. CATL has already moved first: China deliveries of TENER Sodium begin this month, with 1 GWh targeted by year-end and international shipments from June 2027, and the company still says sodium-ion cells reach cost parity with LFP by the end of 2026. BloombergNEF separately expects long-duration storage (six hours or longer) additions to quadruple to about 2 GW in 2026, mostly from non-lithium technologies and concentrated in China, a reminder that the LFP container is no longer the only product the sector is building.
Who's ahead: CATL still owns cells, but BYD and Sungrow now lead the system, and LG Energy Solution owns the US tax-credit path
On cells, the ranking is stable and Chinese. Behind CATL, SNE Research put EVE Energy at 48.0 GWh (10.4 percent) and Hithium at 46.2 GWh (10.0 percent) in H1 2026, with BYD fourth at 35.7 GWh. Benchmark's parallel tally has the same top three and notes the global top-10, all Chinese, still held 83.3 percent of cell shipments even as that concentration slipped 6.3 points year over year. On assembled systems the order flipped: BYD Energy Storage led H1 2026 BESS shipments with a 9.1 percent share, Sungrow was second at 8.8 percent, and CATL dropped to third at 8 percent. Scale and integration are no longer the same ranking.
Sungrow's first-half print shows what that system lead costs. Storage shipments rose 28 percent to 25 GWh and, for the first time, contributed 50 percent of group revenue (RMB 15.456 billion), overtaking inverters. Group revenue still fell 28.99 percent to RMB 30.912 billion and net profit fell 32.01 percent to RMB 5.259 billion, with storage gross margin down 7.49 points to 32.43 percent. The company is now selling EnerNeo solid-state transformers into AI data centers, with about 2 GWh of firm AIDC storage orders, and is sourcing Samsung SDI cells so it can keep supplying US projects without building a US factory. LG Energy Solution is making the opposite bet: North American LFP plants, including Lansing, Michigan, plus a 10-year, 8,000-tonne-a-year lithium-carbonate offtake with Smackover Lithium in Arkansas signed in August 2026, a fully domestic cathode-to-cell chain aimed at developers who need non-prohibited-foreign-entity cells to keep the investment tax credit. TerraPower is a different kind of storage company on this roster: Kemmerer Unit 1, now in construction, pairs a 345 MWe sodium fast reactor with molten-salt storage that can boost output to 500 MWe for more than 5.5 hours, nuclear baseload that behaves like a multi-hour battery.
What decides it: a tax that favors sodium, a mine that will not restart on cue, and whether quality survives the rush
The consumption tax is small in isolation, about RMB 0.007 per Wh at a RMB 0.36/Wh cell price, or roughly RMB 7 million per GWh, but it landed on an industry that had just clawed pricing power back. Storage-cell lines are running above 90 percent utilization, mainstream 314Ah cells are tight, and CATL raised its 314Ah list price from RMB 0.414/Wh to RMB 0.423/Wh as the tax took effect, with EVE Energy and Lishen adding explicit 2 percent surcharges on domestic product. Exports stay exempt, so the tax is a domestic-cost and industrial-policy tool, not a global one: it nudges buyers toward sodium-ion and solid-state just as CATL's first TENER Sodium cabinets are due to ship in China.
Upstream supply is not cooperating. CATL's Jianxiawo lepidolite mine, China's largest lithium operation by capacity, is back on care and maintenance after Yichun authorities withdrew its environmental-impact approval following a brief informal restart. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence cut 2026 mined output to 32,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent from 62,500 tonnes and warned the new review could slip into late 2026 or 2027. That is a swing factor for China lithium just as storage demand is tightening cell supply. Quality is the other constraint: at the September 3 World Power Battery Conference, CATL chairman Robin Zeng said more than 600 new vehicle models had launched in China this year and that some traction batteries had already seen batch-level failures, a warning that the same speed-and-price contest now running through grid cells has a safety cost. LG Energy Solution's September Nature Communications paper on lithium-manganese-rich cells (40 Ah cells keeping 92.2 percent energy after 883 cycles) is the Western answer to that chemistry-and-quality problem, a cobalt-free path still aimed at 2027-2028 commercial production rather than this year's deployments.
The money and the rules: US developers still plan a record year, but only non-Chinese cells keep the tax credit
The US Energy Information Administration's latest inventory still has developers planning 24 GW of utility-scale battery storage in 2026, up from 15 GW added in 2025, second only to solar among new US capacity. About 80 percent of that planned total sits in Texas (12.9 GW), California (3.4 GW), and Arizona (3.2 GW). Projects that begin construction in 2026 must show that at least 55 percent of direct equipment cost comes from non-prohibited foreign entities to keep the investment tax credit, a threshold that rises toward 75 percent by 2030. Because cells are roughly half a grid system's cost, a Chinese cell fails the 2026 test even if every inverter and enclosure is sourced elsewhere. That is why LG Energy Solution's US LFP plants and Smackover offtake, Tesla's Megapack 3 line at the Houston Megafactory, and Sungrow's turn to Samsung SDI cells are the same story told from three sides: the US market is still the second-largest demand pool, and it is closing to China-linked cells.
The commercial consequence is already visible in Sungrow's mix. Storage is now half of sales, yet group profit is down by a third, overseas markets already account for 73.4 percent of revenue, and management is treating the US as a shrinking, higher-risk book rather than a factory destination. Form Energy's iron-air book and Holtec's HI-CLOUD plan to put thermal storage under data-center campuses at retired reactor sites are the long-duration and AI-power versions of the same demand, buyers who cannot wait on interconnection queues and will pay for duration or siting that a four-hour LFP container cannot offer. The capital is still there. The filter is no longer who can make the cheapest 314Ah cell in Ningde.
What to watch through 2027
Watch whether CATL's TENER Sodium cabinets actually reach China customers in September 2026, whether the 1 GWh year-end shipment target holds, and whether cell-level cost parity with LFP lands by December, the three dates that turn sodium from a tax-advantaged slide into a commercial product. Watch the June 2027 start of international TENER Sodium deliveries, including the Alfen partnership in the Netherlands, and the September 1, 2027 step-up of China's lithium-ion consumption tax to 4 percent, which widens the sodium and solid-state exemption just as CATL and BYD still target small-batch solid-state production in 2027.
Watch whether the EIA's 24 GW of US utility-scale additions actually interconnect, and whether FEOC-compliant cell supply from LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and Tesla's Houston Megapack 3 line is enough to keep those projects credit-eligible. Watch CATL's Debrecen cell start and the Stellantis Zaragoza joint venture's Q1 2027 target, Form Energy's first Minnesota iron-air system in 2026 and Crusoe deliveries in 2027, QuantumScape's H2 2026 Eagle-line output doubling ahead of PowerCo's 2029 start of production, and TerraPower's Kemmerer construction toward a February 2031 complete date plus the promised announcement of a second Natrium plant for an AI data-center customer by the end of 2026. Sungrow's own test is whether H2 shipments close the gap from 25 GWh to a 60 GWh full-year target, and whether the Poland and Egypt factories come online by April 2027 as the US book shrinks.
Sources
- Energy-Storage.News - BloombergNEF forecasts 158GW of global energy storage deployments in 2026
- CnEVPost - Global ESS battery market share in H1 2026 (SNE Research)
- Energy-Storage.News - CATL and EVE Energy lead storage-cell price hikes after China's 2 percent consumption tax
- pv magazine - China restores 2 percent lithium-ion battery tax after 11-year exemption
- US EIA - Developers plan a record 24 GW of US utility-scale battery storage in 2026
- CATL - TENER Sodium commercial launch, 1 GWh 2026 target, and 60 GWh HyperStrong order












