The key race: an effective registration, not a new shipment table
The first-half volume ranking has not been replaced. AgiBot's September 30 release, citing IDC, still says global humanoid shipments approached 25,000 units in the first half of 2026, up 432.1 percent year on year, with AgiBot first at more than 8,600 units and about 35 percent of shipments. The same page restates 20,000 cumulative robots produced in September, a Chimelong deployment of more than 300 robots, and 100 X2 robots in ASD stores. IDC's statement on that page that global shipments will exceed 750,000 units by 2030 is a forecast, not funded backlog. The original IDC report was not opened, and the page itself has no later worldwide table.
What moved after October 8 is a listing step. On October 13, 2026 Agility said the SEC declared effective its joint Form S-4 with Churchill Capital Corp XI. Churchill's Form 8-K, filed the same day, identifies file 333-298781 and sets the shareholder meeting for November 2, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time, in person at Willkie Farr in New York and online. Effectiveness and a meeting date are not a close.
Who is ahead: paid hours beside a 2030 channel target
Agility's October 13 release still puts the Western paid-floor case on more than 65,000 hours from earlier Digit generations and on more than $300 million of Digit 5 orders. Those orders remain subject to contractual milestones, product features, or specifications. Early-access availability is still described as early 2027. The release says nine customer facilities are committed today and states a company target of up to 25 by the end of 2027. Digit 5 has not been described as shipped.
UBTECH's new item is a channel agreement, not a new audited unit count. Beijing News, citing UBTECH's official account on October 11, says UBTECH and Xiamen C&D signed in Xiamen on October 9, will form a joint venture and a Fujian ecosystem-technology-center headquarters, and plan to sell no fewer than 10,000 UBTECH humanoid robots together by 2030. An October 10 Viewpoint note carried by Sina confirms the October 9 signing and names government showrooms, commercial complexes, and industrial parks. That note does not repeat the joint-venture terms or the 10,000-unit figure, so the unit line stays UBTECH's stated target.
What the November 2 vote still has to clear
Churchill shareholders still have to approve the combination. The record date in the 8-K is September 14, 2026. Agility says it expects a November close, and a Nasdaq listing under the ticker AGLT, if shareholders approve and other customary conditions are met.
Agility also says that, on closing, it expects to be the only U.S. publicly listed pure-play humanoid company with active commercial deployments. That is the company's description of its own U.S. listing plan. The October 10 note already identifies UBTECH as Hong Kong-listed 9880, and this combination has not closed.
The money: trust cash and a PIPE, not revenue yet
Agility says expected gross proceeds are more than $620 million. About $424 million of that is cash in Churchill's trust account if no public shares are redeemed. About $200 million is a common-stock PIPE led by Foxconn. Redemptions can shrink the trust portion. None of that cash is received until close.
The Digit 5 order figure is still not current-period sales. Agility says it intends to use transaction proceeds to fill existing orders, expand deployments, scale Digit 5 production, and keep investing in software, safety, and manufacturing. Those are intended uses, not a report of revenue recognized this quarter.
What to watch through the vote and into 2027
Watch the November 2, 2026 meeting at 9:00 a.m. Eastern, how many shares are redeemed against the about $424 million trust figure, and whether a November close and AGLT listing actually happen. Digit 5 early access is still described as early 2027, and the order book is still milestone-gated.
Watch whether the October 9 C&D agreement becomes a disclosed order. The 10,000-unit line is a 2030 sales target in UBTECH's account, as reported by Beijing News, and it is absent from the Viewpoint note. AgiBot's September 30 page remains the latest global shipment statement opened here, including the 750,000-unit 2030 forecast. No priced Hong Kong listing appears on that page.
